BlackRock’s UK chief investment strategist, Vivek Paul, has warned this week that pre-election promises of large tax cuts or spending increases could unsettle the bond markets again. There are clear echoes here of the turmoil that followed the Truss/Kwarteng mini-Budget back in 2022. But how worried should we be? These warnings should not be dismissed … Continue reading How much should we fear the return of the ‘bond vigilantes’?
Category: Fiscal Policy
Give Rishi Sunak a little credit for hitting his inflation target – but not a lot
In January the Prime Minister outlined his five priorities for 2023. The first pledge was to “halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security.” The other targets are more challenging, but this one at least has now been met. This is because the CPI measure of inflation fell … Continue reading Give Rishi Sunak a little credit for hitting his inflation target – but not a lot
The IMF is right to be more worried about ‘Bidenomics’ than Brexit
This week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its latest World Economic Outlook, October 2023: Navigating Global Divergences (imf.org). The headlines have focused on the IMF’s gloomy forecasts for the UK, which are even more nonsensical than usual. Unfortunately, this has drawn attention away from a far bigger concern – the fiscal madness in … Continue reading The IMF is right to be more worried about ‘Bidenomics’ than Brexit
Dodgy data and even flakier forecasts are making policy much harder
The unusually large revision to the gross domestic product (GDP) figures produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is only the latest of a series of issues with UK economic data and forecasts. Recent news on the public finances has also been better than predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility, while inflation has … Continue reading Dodgy data and even flakier forecasts are making policy much harder
Plain-speaking Economics 