The real ‘news’ in today’s official GDP data for Q2 is not that the UK economy shrank for a second successive quarter in the three months to June, thus meeting the usual definition of a ‘recession’. That was a racing certainty anyway given the collapse in economic activity in April and the limited recovery in … Continue reading A glass-half-full take on UK GDP
Category: coronavirus
Is the UK still on track for a V-shaped recovery?
The lacklustre GDP data in May have put a significant dent in hopes of a rapid turnaround in the UK economy, but I’m not going to bin my relatively optimistic forecasts just yet. I still expect the shape of the recovery to look roughly like a 'V', with GDP back close to pre-Covid levels by … Continue reading Is the UK still on track for a V-shaped recovery?
Chancellor gets it just about right
Rishi Sunak’s ‘Summer Economic Update’ was judged well – and delivered well – but it remains to be seen whether all the headline-grabbing measures will live up to the hype. The blizzard of announcements, culminating in the gimmicky ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme, left me at least wondering whether the Chancellor was trying a … Continue reading Chancellor gets it just about right
Are 9.3 million people really still on furlough?
One of the biggest threats to the economic recovery is a second wave of job losses as the government’s job retention scheme (JRS) is wound down. The Resolution Foundation has some good analysis here. Nonetheless, the headline figure of 9.3 million for the number of jobs that have been supported by the JRS may overstate … Continue reading Are 9.3 million people really still on furlough?
Plain-speaking Economics 