Category: Brexit

Dodgy data and even flakier forecasts are making policy much harder

The unusually large revision to the gross domestic product (GDP) figures produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is only the latest of a series of issues with UK economic data and forecasts. Recent news on the public finances has also been better than predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility, while inflation has … Continue reading Dodgy data and even flakier forecasts are making policy much harder →

Why Mark Carney is wrong (again)

True to form, Mark Carney has made another unhelpful intervention in the Brexit debate. This time his remarks have generated more heat than light on the impact that the vote to leave the EU might have had on UK inflation. And by appearing to validate fears that UK interest rates have a lot further to … Continue reading Why Mark Carney is wrong (again) →

Does ‘Brexit Britain’ really have a migration crisis?

The news that net migration to the UK hit a new record of 606,000 last year has understandably rung alarm bells. As Rakib Ehsan discussed here, there is a broad consensus that such high figures are unsustainable and, in some sense, undesirable. Nonetheless, talk of a immigration ‘crisis’ seems overdone. First, it is not obvious … Continue reading Does ‘Brexit Britain’ really have a migration crisis? →

UK food price inflation set to fall sharply

First, the bad news. The lowlight of the latest UK inflation data was that the consumer price (CPI) measure of food price inflation jumped even further in March – to 19.1%. This contributed about 2.2 percentage points to the overall inflation rate of 10.1%. With ‘core’ inflation still stubbornly high (over 6%), food price inflation … Continue reading UK food price inflation set to fall sharply →