The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has raised interest rates by just a quarter point, to 1.25 per cent. This was the fifth increase in as many meetings, but still leaves rates near historic lows. In my view, this was a mistake. This decision is hard to square with April’s consumer price inflation … Continue reading Bank of England falls further behind in race to tame inflation
Tag: recession
Weak consumer confidence doesn’t necessarily signal recession
If you believe the media coverage of the latest consumer confidence surveys, household spending is set to collapse under the weight of the cost of living crisis, dragging the UK economy into a deep recession. But how reliable are these signals? As always, it is worth digging past the headlines. The GfK measure of consumer … Continue reading Weak consumer confidence doesn’t necessarily signal recession
Podcast on UK inflation and monetary policy
I recorded a podcast for the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) on Friday 6th May on UK inflation, definitions of 'recession' and 'stagflation', and what more the Bank of England could (and should) have done. You can listen here... https://ieapodcast.podbean.com/e/interest-rates-how-to-control-inflation/
Big freeze in GDP should keep tax hikes on ice too
The latest UK GDP numbers were better than expected, but it would still be dangerous to raise taxes in the March Budget. This would be far too soon after a year when the economy contracted by nearly 10% and with a renewed decline almost certain this quarter. To recap, UK GDP rose by 1.2% m/m in December … Continue reading Big freeze in GDP should keep tax hikes on ice too
Plain-speaking Economics 