The past week was packed with new data releases which sent some mixed signals on the health of the UK economy and the prospects for 2026. This note takes stock. The most encouraging news came from the latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index, which jumped to 53.9 in January from 51.4 in December. … Continue reading Is the UK economy “turning the corner”?
Tag: OBR
What to make of the latest UK GDP data
It is great to be able to start with some good news… The 0.3% growth in the UK economy in November was a bit better than consensus expectations of around 0.1%, with some favourable revisions to previous data as well. The detail showed that the bounce in November was driven in part by a rebound in car … Continue reading What to make of the latest UK GDP data
The UK economy is trapped in a “doom loop” by a clueless government
The early omens for 2026 are not good. The UK is stumbling into the New Year on the brink of recession. Indeed, the economy stopped growing last summer as Budget jitters began to undermine confidence and spending again. Only some favourable rounding in August prevented headline GDP from falling in every month from July to … Continue reading The UK economy is trapped in a “doom loop” by a clueless government
Budget speculation kills growth
The further contraction in the UK economy in October confirms that Budget speculation has killed growth, with GDP falling by 0.1% on both the single month and three month on three month comparisons. What’s more, the weakness was broad based (so not just the fallout from cyber attack at JLR). But this leaves some important questions to … Continue reading Budget speculation kills growth
Plain-speaking Economics 