According to Brexit pessimists, the UK economy is already as much as 3% smaller than it would have been if the UK had voted to remain in the EU, and the deal that Boris Johnson’s government has negotiated could reduce GDP by another 7% over the next ten years. Fortunately, neither of these numbers stands … Continue reading What would Boris’ deal mean for the economy?
The IMF is the latest official body to predict economic catastrophe – or at least a prolonged recession – if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. To be fair, the analysis presented in the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook is a good example of its kind and relatively easy to understand. Nonetheless, the conclusions are … Continue reading Why the IMF’s no-deal Brexit warnings are way over the top
In a thought-provoking blog for the New Economics Foundation (NEF), Alfie Stirling has made the striking claim that the cumulative effect of austerity since 2010 has been to reduce the level of UK GDP in 2018/19 by 4.7%, or almost £100 billion. This is equivalent to “around £1,500 for every woman, man and child this year alone”. … Continue reading Is the UK economy £100bn smaller because of austerity?
According to the latest estimates from the Centre for European Reform (CER), the UK economy was 2.5% smaller in the fourth quarter of 2018 than it would have been had Britain voted to remain in the EU referendum. The Bank of England has recently published similar work by the independent MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, which suggests that the … Continue reading Is the UK economy already 2.5% smaller as a result of Brexit?