On Wednesday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present her ‘Spending Review 2025’. This will set day-to-day budgets for all government departments for the three years from 2026-27 to 2028-29, and investment spending plans for a further year, to 2029-30. As usual, many of the details have already been revealed. In particular, ministers have trumpeted a ‘transformative … Continue reading Lies, damn lies, and Spending Review soundbites
Tag: growth
UK Q1 GDP: as good as it gets?
The first official estimates suggest that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year, which was better than most had expected. GDP per head increased by a respectable 0.5%. On the bright side, this should trigger a wave of upward revisions to growth forecasts for 2025 as a whole. (I … Continue reading UK Q1 GDP: as good as it gets?
Fourth quarter GDP ‘boost’ is nothing to cheer
The first official figures for UK GDP in the final quarter of last year may not have been quite as bad as expected, but it says a lot that some are keen to trumpet economic growth of just 0.1% as ‘good news' and a much-needed 'boost' for Rachel Reeves. Quarterly growth of at least 0.4% … Continue reading Fourth quarter GDP ‘boost’ is nothing to cheer
Is the UK sliding back into ‘recession’?
The answer to this question partly depends on your definition of ‘recession’, but I can think of at least three ways of approaching it. First, "two quarters of falling GDP"? Probably 'no', or at least not yet. Second, "two quarters of falling GDP per head"? Almost certainly 'yes'. Indeed, we already appear to be in … Continue reading Is the UK sliding back into ‘recession’?
Plain-speaking Economics 