Tag: economics

Will the UK need an IMF bailout?

This weekend the Sunday Telegraph led with Britain ‘heading towards IMF bailout’, citing three leading economists who are warning of a “1970s-style debt crisis unless the Chancellor changes course”. The three – Jagjit Chadha, Andrew Sentance and Willem Buiter – are not the usual suspects and their views should be taken seriously. The story was prompted … Continue reading Will the UK need an IMF bailout?

Will the July inflation data reveal an “Oasis bump”?

There has been some speculation that Wednesday’s UK CPI data for July will include an “Oasis bump”. In fact, the fallout from the reunion gigs is unlikely to have a significant impact on UK-wide inflation, and even less likely to influence UK monetary policy. Nonetheless, this is an interesting angle, so here goes anyway. (I’ve … Continue reading Will the July inflation data reveal an “Oasis bump”?

Better news on growth, but still not good enough

The latest GDP data should ease fears that the UK economy is sliding back into recession. But growth is still too weak to fix the public finances, or encourage hiring and investment, and there are already signs that any positive momentum is fading again. First, though, the good news. GDP grew by 0.3% in the … Continue reading Better news on growth, but still not good enough

One and a half cheers for Rachel Reeves!

The Chancellor has a taxing job (pun intended), but we all deserve a break occasionally. So, I’m going to be positive about her latest Mansion House speech. Admittedly, there is nothing here to justify the hype about a new ‘Big Bang. The so-called ‘Leeds Reforms’ (in a nod to Reeves’ constituency) are little more than a … Continue reading One and a half cheers for Rachel Reeves!