Here are the slides (with a few tweaks and additions) from a presentation I made recently to an audience of economists in London. The presentation covers some strengths and weaknesses of the OBR's Brexit analysis and of 'doppelganger' models, and attempts to correct some common misunderstandings. It also includes some of my favourite charts! Brexit … Continue reading A presentation on Brexit
Tag: Brexit
Labour’s policies risk snuffing out the recovery
Let us start with the good news. The UK economy is set to beat expectations this year and outperform the euro area, boosting the appeal of UK assets to overseas investors. UK GDP grew by a solid 0.7 percent in the first quarter, and this rate is likely to be matched in the second. Even … Continue reading Labour’s policies risk snuffing out the recovery
The libertarian case for Brexit – restated
Back in January the IEA published a blog post by Emmanuel Comte with the title “Why Brexit was a mistake, from a libertarian perspective”. I believe this judgement is wrong – or at best, premature – but the libertarian case for Brexit does often need restating. Dr Comte, a Senior Research Fellow at the Hellenic … Continue reading The libertarian case for Brexit – restated
Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end
The tick up in UK CPI inflation to 4.0% in December last year was an unwelcome surprise, but one small miss in one month’s data does not change the big picture. For a start, inflation is still lower than the Bank of England had been forecasting. The November Monetary Policy Report assumed that inflation would … Continue reading Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end
Plain-speaking Economics 