Tag: Brexit

Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)

I’ve just updated my UK GDP forecasts with today’s data for November. Here are ten key points, including some international comparisons. 1. UK economic growth in 2021 is likely to be just shy of 7½%, 1% higher than assumed in the October Budget and 3% higher than the consensus in the Treasury survey at the … Continue reading Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again) →

What’s the real story on UK-EU trade?

Many diehard Remainers are still claiming that UK exports to the EU have been permanently crippled by Brexit, and that UK imports will fall further. But the evidence is stacking up against them. Admittedly, the widely expected decision to delay the full introduction of UK border checks might suggest that there is worse to come. The Government … Continue reading What’s the real story on UK-EU trade? →

Brexit Britain’s resilient services sector is proving the gloomsters wrong

Many people raised concerns about the patchy coverage of services in the Brexit deal negotiated between the UK and EU, known as the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The gaps have already caused some significant problems, especially for smaller firms. In principle, the TCA offered extensive market access for UK services businesses, including the mutual … Continue reading Brexit Britain’s resilient services sector is proving the gloomsters wrong →