Economists are divided on whether there will be a significant boost to the UK economy from a reduction in Brexit uncertainty. I’m optimistic and expect growth to accelerate over the course of 2020 and beyond. Others are not, arguing that the best we can expect is more certainty of a bad outcome. Here’s a summary … Continue reading Is the ‘Brexit bounce’ the real deal?
Category: Trade policy
Has Brexit really already cost us [insert number here]?
Ever since the 2016 referendum, economists have attempted to estimate what Brexit ‘has already cost’ the UK economy and households. It won’t be a surprise to see some of the most depressing numbers dusted off this week to mark the departure from the EU. But all these studies should be taken with a large pinch … Continue reading Has Brexit really already cost us [insert number here]?
What would Boris’ deal mean for the economy?
According to Brexit pessimists, the UK economy is already as much as 3% smaller than it would have been if the UK had voted to remain in the EU, and the deal that Boris Johnson’s government has negotiated could reduce GDP by another 7% over the next ten years. Fortunately, neither of these numbers stands … Continue reading What would Boris’ deal mean for the economy?
Yellowhammer misses the mark
After a lot of hype, the Operation Yellowhammer briefing has failed to substantiate the warnings of 'chaos' if the UK leaves the EU without a formal Withdrawal Agreement. The published report appears to be an honest attempt to identify the potential risks of a no-deal Brexit, in order that the government can prepare for and … Continue reading Yellowhammer misses the mark
Plain-speaking Economics 