The tick up in UK CPI inflation to 4.0% in December last year was an unwelcome surprise, but one small miss in one month’s data does not change the big picture. For a start, inflation is still lower than the Bank of England had been forecasting. The November Monetary Policy Report assumed that inflation would … Continue reading Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end
Category: Labour markets
Letter to the FT on proposals for a ‘wage inflation tax’
The wage inflation tax proposed by Sushil Wadhwani (‘Time for the UK to tax inflation’ 5 September) would be inappropriate, impractical, and ineffective. It would be inappropriate because it would prevent markets from working properly. The wages paid by each company to each employee, like the prices of any other good or service, should be … Continue reading Letter to the FT on proposals for a ‘wage inflation tax’
Does ‘Brexit Britain’ really have a migration crisis?
The news that net migration to the UK hit a new record of 606,000 last year has understandably rung alarm bells. As Rakib Ehsan discussed here, there is a broad consensus that such high figures are unsustainable and, in some sense, undesirable. Nonetheless, talk of a immigration ‘crisis’ seems overdone. First, it is not obvious … Continue reading Does ‘Brexit Britain’ really have a migration crisis?
Why is the UK short of workers and what should be done about it?
In the good old days, economists could gauge the health of the UK labour market simply by glancing at the unemployment rate. The latest official figure is still just 3.7 per cent, which suggests all is well. Unemployment has not been this low since the early 1970s. Put another way, the vast majority of people … Continue reading Why is the UK short of workers and what should be done about it?
Plain-speaking Economics 