The jump in UK inflation from 3.0% to 3.3% in March is obviously bad news but not quite as bad as some had feared (or at least no worse). In particular, the Bank of England had expected this number to be “close to 3½%” when interest rates were left on hold last month. Moreover, this jump can … Continue reading Subdued money growth should limit inflation risks
Category: global economy
Two scenarios: “TACO”, or “Trumpageddon”?
In the early stages of the Iran crisis the markets priced in a relatively benign scenario. The conflict was expected to be short, lasting days if not weeks, with limited fallout for energy prices and for the global economy. A month on, this has proved to be far too optimistic. Indeed, the future looks increasingly … Continue reading Two scenarios: “TACO”, or “Trumpageddon”?
The UK economy is trapped in a “doom loop” by a clueless government
The early omens for 2026 are not good. The UK is stumbling into the New Year on the brink of recession. Indeed, the economy stopped growing last summer as Budget jitters began to undermine confidence and spending again. Only some favourable rounding in August prevented headline GDP from falling in every month from July to … Continue reading The UK economy is trapped in a “doom loop” by a clueless government
Four reasons to resist the siren calls for a new ‘customs union’
The Liberal Democrats have long argued in favour of some new form of ‘customs union’ between the UK and the EU. But it now appears that key figures in the Labour administration are swinging behind the idea as well, including the Prime Minister’s chief economic adviser Minouche Shafik and Treasury minister Torsten Bell. These two … Continue reading Four reasons to resist the siren calls for a new ‘customs union’
