The recent slide in the pound against both the dollar and euro has prompted talk of ‘meltdown’ and ‘free fall’. Some commentators have already called this a ‘sterling crisis’, and speculated about what Tory politicians would be saying if it were happening under a Labour government. Even the normally sensible Conservative MP, Sam Gyimah, has described … Continue reading No, this still isn’t a ‘sterling crisis’
Category: Brexit
Why Q2’s fall in UK GDP isn’t a game changer
To begin with, let’s be clear that the UK’s second quarter GDP data were disappointing. The 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) fall was the first decline since 2012, and also bigger than expected (the consensus forecast was for no change). What’s more, the UK was, at the time, the only major economy to report an outright fall in … Continue reading Why Q2’s fall in UK GDP isn’t a game changer
NHS scaremongering shouldn’t block a US-UK trade deal
‘Americans want our NHS’, ‘people before profits’, ‘#NHSNotForSale’… it’s always been difficult to have a sensible discussion about healthcare in the UK, but if you combine the NHS with both Brexit and Trump, it seems almost impossible. Fortunately, there are still some people – even on Twitter – who are willing to engage in constructive … Continue reading NHS scaremongering shouldn’t block a US-UK trade deal
Why the IMF’s no-deal Brexit warnings are way over the top
The IMF is the latest official body to predict economic catastrophe – or at least a prolonged recession – if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. To be fair, the analysis presented in the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook is a good example of its kind and relatively easy to understand. Nonetheless, the conclusions are … Continue reading Why the IMF’s no-deal Brexit warnings are way over the top
Plain-speaking Economics 