Category: Brexit

What the NBER got wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’

I’ve finally found time to review the NBER Working Paper which claims that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by as much as 8% since the vote to leave in 2016. As Martin Wolf writes in today’s Financial Times, “if this is even roughly correct, Brexit has been nothing short of an economic disaster”. But I think … Continue reading What the NBER got wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’ →

November Budget needs to be big and bold

A year ago, the Chancellor promised that the £40 billion of tax increases announced in her first Budget would be a “one-off”. But it is now almost certain that her second Budget next month will deliver more of the same. What’s gone wrong? The technical answer is that OBR is expected to predict that the … Continue reading November Budget needs to be big and bold →

The ‘Brexit blame game’ is pretty desperate stuff

Rachel Reeves is getting her excuses in early ahead of next month’s Budget, which looks set to be a painful repeat of last October’s “one off”. The Chancellor has already blamed “external headwinds”, “Tory austerity” and “the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-Budget”. It is no surprise that she has now dropped the “B-word” too. … Continue reading The ‘Brexit blame game’ is pretty desperate stuff →