Category: Brexit

Some French lessons for Rishi Sunak

Here’s something you might not expect to read: ‘chapeau’ to the French economy, which has been one of Europe’s star performers since the pandemic. But what, if anything, can we in the UK learn from this? First, some numbers. The French economy has bounced back relatively quickly. GDP was about one per cent higher in … Continue reading Some French lessons for Rishi Sunak →

Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)

I’ve just updated my UK GDP forecasts with today’s data for November. Here are ten key points, including some international comparisons. 1. UK economic growth in 2021 is likely to be just shy of 7½%, 1% higher than assumed in the October Budget and 3% higher than the consensus in the Treasury survey at the … Continue reading Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again) →

UK economy to catch up by Christmas

Most of the coverage of the latest UK GDP figures has been downbeat. Two headlines sum up the responses: ‘the best of the recovery is behind us’, and ‘the UK economy has reclaimed its status as the G7’s laggard’. ‘Stagflation’ is back on the agenda again too. I would rather focus on the positives, but let’s begin … Continue reading UK economy to catch up by Christmas →