The latest UK GDP numbers were better than expected, but it would still be dangerous to raise taxes in the March Budget. This would be far too soon after a year when the economy contracted by nearly 10% and with a renewed decline almost certain this quarter. To recap, UK GDP rose by 1.2% m/m in December … Continue reading Big freeze in GDP should keep tax hikes on ice too
Category: Applied economics
My wish list for the March Budget
On 3rd February I was one of four economists who testified to the House of Commons Treasury Committee on the 2021 Budget, exactly one month before Rishi Sunak is due to present it for real. We disagreed on many things, but there was a strong consensus on two points. First, March is far too soon … Continue reading My wish list for the March Budget
The pros and (mostly) cons of an online sales tax
The Sunday Times has reported that UK officials are mulling two new taxes on digital businesses – an online sales tax and an ‘excess profits tax’ – in order to help fill the hole in the public finances and support the High Street. In my view, both are bad ideas. In general, economists quite like … Continue reading The pros and (mostly) cons of an online sales tax
Have UK exports to the EU really been ‘slashed by 68%’?
The lead in Sunday’s Observer (7th February) was ‘Fury at Gove as exports to EU slashed by 68% since Brexit’. If this headline is right, this is indeed a ‘Brexit disaster’. Fortunately, some basic due diligence suggests that it’s over the top. The Observer claims that ‘the volume of exports going through British ports to … Continue reading Have UK exports to the EU really been ‘slashed by 68%’?
Plain-speaking Economics 