Some personal reflections on today’s news (as usual, all views here are my own only). First, the economics. The fall in UK inflation from 3.2% to 2.3% in April was slightly smaller than expected, but still another big step in the right direction. Admittedly, the ‘core’ rate excluding food and energy, at 3.9%, was still … Continue reading Thoughts on inflation, interest rates – and a surprise July election
Tag: inflation
Could the economy still save Rishi Sunak?
Voters will obviously need to believe that the "economic plan" is working if the Conservatives are to have any chance of winning the General Election. But while it's not yet showing in the polls, some essential parts of the jigsaw are now falling into place. Indeed, Labour’s Rachel Reeves appeared worried enough to launch a … Continue reading Could the economy still save Rishi Sunak?
UK economy ‘turns the corner’
First, the good news (and the news is mainly good today). The unexpectedly large 0.6% bounce in GDP in the first quarter of the year means that the UK economy has officially exited ‘recession’, after declines of 0.1% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4 2023. This has already led to some more positive headlines, which … Continue reading UK economy ‘turns the corner’
Bank of England tees up rate cuts – at last
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left its key interest rate on hold at 5¼% this week, as expected, but there are some clear signals that cuts are coming soon. For a start, Dave Ramsden (Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking) joined Swati Dhingra in voting for an immediate reduction to 5%. This … Continue reading Bank of England tees up rate cuts – at last
Plain-speaking Economics 