Earlier this year I gave oral evidence to the Economic Affairs Committee of the House of Lords on the state of the public finances. I'm pleased to say they included many of my thoughts in their final report, available here. Some excerpts. On the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio... 31. When considering the implications of … Continue reading “How sustainable is our national debt?”
Tag: GDP
A presentation on Brexit
Here are the slides (with a few tweaks and additions) from a presentation I made recently to an audience of economists in London. The presentation covers some strengths and weaknesses of the OBR's Brexit analysis and of 'doppelganger' models, and attempts to correct some common misunderstandings. It also includes some of my favourite charts! Brexit … Continue reading A presentation on Brexit
Labour’s fiscal credibility is at risk if the Chancellor keeps shifting the goalposts
Rachel Reeves is said to be considering a technical change to the measure of debt used in the fiscal rules in order to allow more government borrowing. This move may not be as outrageous as some suggest, but it would not be costless either. And there is certainly no silver bullet to fix the public … Continue reading Labour’s fiscal credibility is at risk if the Chancellor keeps shifting the goalposts
Labour’s policies risk snuffing out the recovery
Let us start with the good news. The UK economy is set to beat expectations this year and outperform the euro area, boosting the appeal of UK assets to overseas investors. UK GDP grew by a solid 0.7 percent in the first quarter, and this rate is likely to be matched in the second. Even … Continue reading Labour’s policies risk snuffing out the recovery
Plain-speaking Economics 