The early omens for 2026 are not good. The UK is stumbling into the New Year on the brink of recession. Indeed, the economy stopped growing last summer as Budget jitters began to undermine confidence and spending again. Only some favourable rounding in August prevented headline GDP from falling in every month from July to … Continue reading The UK economy is trapped in a “doom loop” by a clueless government
Where’s the beef?
Last Friday the Daily Telegraph ran a story headlined “Farmers’ anger grows as Australian beef floods into Britain”. It took a couple of days for the usual suspects to pounce on this, but once a few did the rest piled in. Various halfwits and attention seekers rushed to trumpet this story as fresh evidence that … Continue reading Where’s the beef?
Why the Bank of England should sit tight this week
The UK interest rate decision this week is finely balanced – so much so that I was not even sure which way I would vote. Nonetheless, over the course of writing this piece I have persuaded myself to switch to ‘no change’, even though the actual decision is still likely to be a cut. This … Continue reading Why the Bank of England should sit tight this week
Budget speculation kills growth
The further contraction in the UK economy in October confirms that Budget speculation has killed growth, with GDP falling by 0.1% on both the single month and three month on three month comparisons. What’s more, the weakness was broad based (so not just the fallout from cyber attack at JLR). But this leaves some important questions to … Continue reading Budget speculation kills growth
Plain-speaking Economics 