I can understand why the government is launching a campaign to encourage people to go back to work. Its own dire warnings about the importance of staying at home had contributed to a climate of fear that perhaps only the government itself can now undo. But there is also a danger that attempts to replicate … Continue reading Home working choices shouldn’t be the government’s business
Category: UK economy
How more accurate data help to explain the relatively large fall in UK GDP
There is a lively debate among economists about the way in which UK statisticians are estimating the impact of Covid and the lockdown on the output of the public sector. This is a relatively arcane topic and the mainstream media can be forgiven for not yet covering it. But it is important, not least because … Continue reading How more accurate data help to explain the relatively large fall in UK GDP
A glass-half-full take on UK GDP
The real ‘news’ in today’s official GDP data for Q2 is not that the UK economy shrank for a second successive quarter in the three months to June, thus meeting the usual definition of a ‘recession’. That was a racing certainty anyway given the collapse in economic activity in April and the limited recovery in … Continue reading A glass-half-full take on UK GDP
Is the UK still on track for a V-shaped recovery?
The lacklustre GDP data in May have put a significant dent in hopes of a rapid turnaround in the UK economy, but I’m not going to bin my relatively optimistic forecasts just yet. I still expect the shape of the recovery to look roughly like a 'V', with GDP back close to pre-Covid levels by … Continue reading Is the UK still on track for a V-shaped recovery?
Plain-speaking Economics 