The answer to this question partly depends on your definition of ‘recession’, but I can think of at least three ways of approaching it. First, "two quarters of falling GDP"? Probably 'no', or at least not yet. Second, "two quarters of falling GDP per head"? Almost certainly 'yes'. Indeed, we already appear to be in … Continue reading Is the UK sliding back into ‘recession’?
Category: UK economy
Are the IMF’s latest forecasts really “good news for Rachel Reeves”?
Frankly, I would prefer to ignore the economic forecasts from the IMF, or other multinational organisations like the OECD, because they add little value. However, the latest numbers for the UK have been trumpeted as a big win for the government, and for the embattled Chancellor in particular, as part of what appears to be … Continue reading Are the IMF’s latest forecasts really “good news for Rachel Reeves”?
Is there hope for Britain’s economy in 2025?
In the memorable words of one official statistician, Britain’s economy was “going gangbusters” at the beginning of 2024. Unfortunately, last year appears to have ended with a whimper. The best hope now is that this pattern will be reversed in 2025, with a sluggish start giving way to a strong and sustained recovery. But the … Continue reading Is there hope for Britain’s economy in 2025?
Trump’s ‘MAGAnomics’ adds to the downside risks to the UK economy in 2025
On Monday 20 January, Donald Trump will complete a remarkable comeback when he inaugurated as President of the United States for the second time. But the world economy needs to brace for another outbreak of ‘Trumponomics’ or, as the man himself puts it, ‘MAGAnomics’. So far, investors in US equities have responded positively. In part, … Continue reading Trump’s ‘MAGAnomics’ adds to the downside risks to the UK economy in 2025
