A week since the US and Israel attacked Iran seems a good time to take stock of the implications for the UK economy and markets. Here are six key points. 1. The energy markets are pricing in a relatively benign scenario The energy markets appear to be banking on a short war, with only temporary disruption … Continue reading Six key points on the Iran war
Category: Taxation
Better UK economic news owes little to Labour’s policy choices
Friday was a relatively good day for UK economic data, with the latest news on the public finances, retail sales, and the PMI survey all better than expected. This followed Wednesday’s confirmation that headline inflation fell back in January. But is this really evidence that the worst is over – and are the Labour government … Continue reading Better UK economic news owes little to Labour’s policy choices
Four insights on the latest UK labour data (warning! contains nuance…)
Many people will read whatever they like into today’s new data on the labour market without bothering to look past the headlines. And to be fair, those raising concerns about the recent trends in unemployment and in pay are right to do so. Nonetheless, the underlying picture is a little more nuanced. Here are four key points … Continue reading Four insights on the latest UK labour data (warning! contains nuance…)
Bank of England remains in the slow lane on rate cuts
The Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% today was no great surprise, but the 5-4 vote was much closer than most had anticipated. Unfortunately, this dovish tilt owes more to rising concerns about growth and jobs than it does to increasing optimism about inflation, even though the two are of course related. In … Continue reading Bank of England remains in the slow lane on rate cuts
Plain-speaking Economics 