It is so much simpler to interpret the UK economy if you attribute every single problem to Brexit. But it is also wrong. Last week, for example, the EU statistics agency Eurostat released preliminary data suggesting that consumer price inflation in the euro area fell from 8.5pc in February to ‘just’ 6.9pc in March, including a … Continue reading No, our inflation problem is not due to Brexit
Category: Monetary policy
End of free money brings the chickens home to roost
The shocks that occasionally batter the UK economy seem to be coming thicker and faster. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) blew up in 2008. The Brexit vote followed eight year later. But we then only had to wait four years for Covid, and just two more for the cost-of-living crisis. At this rate we are … Continue reading End of free money brings the chickens home to roost
Could a house price crash still trigger a recession?
Fingers crossed, it looks like the UK has dodged the severe recession that many had feared. But we are not out of the woods yet. Could a sharp fall in house prices still drag the economy down? Many better economists than me have been tripped up by their forecasts for the UK housing market. For … Continue reading Could a house price crash still trigger a recession?
The MPC should now pause for breath
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) increased UK interest rates by another half point this week, as most had expected, taking them to 4%. But it also hinted that rates may not rise much further - if at all. I think the MPC has got this about right. The decision to raise interest rates was … Continue reading The MPC should now pause for breath
Plain-speaking Economics 