The answer to this question partly depends on your definition of ‘recession’, but I can think of at least three ways of approaching it. First, "two quarters of falling GDP"? Probably 'no', or at least not yet. Second, "two quarters of falling GDP per head"? Almost certainly 'yes'. Indeed, we already appear to be in … Continue reading Is the UK sliding back into ‘recession’?
Category: Monetary policy
Schools presentation on the ‘productivity puzzle’
Here are the slides from a presentation I made today to sixth-formers at a conference hosted by my old school (hence the horrendous photo!) Schools presentation on the productivity puzzle (Jan 2025)Download
Is there hope for Britain’s economy in 2025?
In the memorable words of one official statistician, Britain’s economy was “going gangbusters” at the beginning of 2024. Unfortunately, last year appears to have ended with a whimper. The best hope now is that this pattern will be reversed in 2025, with a sluggish start giving way to a strong and sustained recovery. But the … Continue reading Is there hope for Britain’s economy in 2025?
What to make of soaring bond yields
The latest surge in gilt yields - which represents the cost of new borrowing by the UK government in the bond market - is yet another shock that the already fragile economy could do without. To be fair, this crisis is not entirely the making of Rachel Reeves and her October Budget. Bond yields have … Continue reading What to make of soaring bond yields
