Category: Labour markets

Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)

I’ve just updated my UK GDP forecasts with today’s data for November. Here are ten key points, including some international comparisons. 1. UK economic growth in 2021 is likely to be just shy of 7½%, 1% higher than assumed in the October Budget and 3% higher than the consensus in the Treasury survey at the … Continue reading Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again) →

Put April’s tax rises on hold and let growth fix the public finances

First, the bad news. UK consumer price inflation has already hit 5.1pc in the 12 months to November. And it is likely to rise further in the coming months as businesses pass on more of the price pressure that is already in the pipeline. In particular, the energy regulator Ofgem is reviewing its cap on … Continue reading Put April’s tax rises on hold and let growth fix the public finances →

Bank of England needs to act now to tame the inflation tiger

It’s not often I agree with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but their latest warnings on the risks of inaction from the Bank of England could not have been more timely. The jump in consumer price inflation to 5.1 per cent in November has already taken it well above the figure of 4.5 per cent … Continue reading Bank of England needs to act now to tame the inflation tiger →