The early omens for 2026 are not good. The UK is stumbling into the New Year on the brink of recession. Indeed, the economy stopped growing last summer as Budget jitters began to undermine confidence and spending again. Only some favourable rounding in August prevented headline GDP from falling in every month from July to … Continue reading The UK economy is trapped in a “doom loop” by a clueless government
Category: global economy
Four reasons to resist the siren calls for a new ‘customs union’
The Liberal Democrats have long argued in favour of some new form of ‘customs union’ between the UK and the EU. But it now appears that key figures in the Labour administration are swinging behind the idea as well, including the Prime Minister’s chief economic adviser Minouche Shafik and Treasury minister Torsten Bell. These two … Continue reading Four reasons to resist the siren calls for a new ‘customs union’
The case for a late Budget
The Chancellor has confirmed that the date of the Autumn Budget will be Wednesday 26 November. This is relatively late, raising fears that a longer period of speculation and uncertainty will undermine confidence even further, but there are always trade-offs. I can think of five reasons why waiting might make sense. First, and perhaps most … Continue reading The case for a late Budget
How could a bond market crisis unfold?
The yields on UK government bonds, commonly known as “gilts”, are now consistently the highest among the G7 group of advanced economies. Why is this, and why should the rest of us care? The numbers alone are disturbing. The cost of new government borrowing for ten years is now around 4.8% in the UK, compared … Continue reading How could a bond market crisis unfold?
Plain-speaking Economics 