Economists are divided on whether there will be a significant boost to the UK economy from a reduction in Brexit uncertainty. I’m optimistic and expect growth to accelerate over the course of 2020 and beyond. Others are not, arguing that the best we can expect is more certainty of a bad outcome. Here’s a summary … Continue reading Is the ‘Brexit bounce’ the real deal?
Category: Brexit
Has Brexit really already cost us [insert number here]?
Ever since the 2016 referendum, economists have attempted to estimate what Brexit ‘has already cost’ the UK economy and households. It won’t be a surprise to see some of the most depressing numbers dusted off this week to mark the departure from the EU. But all these studies should be taken with a large pinch … Continue reading Has Brexit really already cost us [insert number here]?
The Bank of England should be thinking of raising rates, not cutting them
Almost all the commentary ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting at the end of the month has focused on whether interest rates should be cut, or left on hold. In contrast, I would be itching to vote for a hike. There does at least appear to be an emerging consensus that the … Continue reading The Bank of England should be thinking of raising rates, not cutting them
Five times the City got it wrong on Brexit
"Buy British, Goldman Sachs tells clients". I had mixed feelings on reading this headline. It’s reassuring that the City is waking up to the prospect of an upturn in the economy next year. Goldman is surely right that clarity on the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU should emerge sooner under a Conservative … Continue reading Five times the City got it wrong on Brexit
Plain-speaking Economics 