The Chancellor’s big growth speech on Wednesday morning was so widely trailed that it contained few surprises. But it was still the clearest and most coherent statement of her economic philosophy and plans, so far. Before diving into the detail, it is only fair to welcome the change of tone. It has been refreshing to … Continue reading Can Rachel Reeves get growth back on track?
Author: julianhjessop
The UK probably should rejoin the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention – but it’s not a big deal either way
First, the short version… In my opinion, the UK should rejoin the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention, which would allow British firms to use components sourced from anywhere within this zone and still qualify for tariff-free trade with other members. This would not be a ‘betrayal of Brexit’, despite what some are claiming. Crucially, the PEM Convention is … Continue reading The UK probably should rejoin the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention – but it’s not a big deal either way
Is the UK sliding back into ‘recession’?
The answer to this question partly depends on your definition of ‘recession’, but I can think of at least three ways of approaching it. First, "two quarters of falling GDP"? Probably 'no', or at least not yet. Second, "two quarters of falling GDP per head"? Almost certainly 'yes'. Indeed, we already appear to be in … Continue reading Is the UK sliding back into ‘recession’?
Are the IMF’s latest forecasts really “good news for Rachel Reeves”?
Frankly, I would prefer to ignore the economic forecasts from the IMF, or other multinational organisations like the OECD, because they add little value. However, the latest numbers for the UK have been trumpeted as a big win for the government, and for the embattled Chancellor in particular, as part of what appears to be … Continue reading Are the IMF’s latest forecasts really “good news for Rachel Reeves”?
Plain-speaking Economics 