As every student of economics or history show know, free trade is a win-win. The escalation in the tariff war between the US and China will therefore be a lose-lose for both parties. Nonetheless, China is more likely to come out on top. This may seem counter intuitive. After all, China benefits from a huge … Continue reading Why China can still win a trade war with the US
Tag: Trump
Is the UK economy really bouncing back?
The news that the UK economy grew by 0.5% in February, lifting the three-month growth rate to 0.6%, is obviously welcome. But these ONS figures should come plastered with health warnings. For a start, monthly GDP data are notoriously volatile, and often revised. A sharp correction is possible in March and especially in April, when … Continue reading Is the UK economy really bouncing back?
Trump wins! / backs down! (pick your own headline)
This is the first time I have ever had to post twice in one day on the same topic, but here goes... President Trump has just raised tariffs on China to 125%. However, he has also announced a 90-day pause on the 'reciprocal tariffs' for those countries that have not yet retaliated. On balance this … Continue reading Trump wins! / backs down! (pick your own headline)
What to make of the latest market turmoil
A week on from ‘Liberation Day’, Trump’s tariffs have not landed well in the financial markets, especially with a tit-for-tat trade war now breaking out between the US and China. That much is obvious. But there is still a lot to unpick. The simplest place to start is the stock markets. The US S&P 500 … Continue reading What to make of the latest market turmoil
Plain-speaking Economics 