Tag: OBR

UK economy on a knife edge

The latest official data are perhaps not as bad as some headlines suggest, but they do confirm that the UK economy made a poor start to 2025. First, the raw numbers. Monthly GDP fell by 0.1% in January, against the consensus forecast of a 0.1% rise, led by a 0.9% fall in the production sector … Continue reading UK economy on a knife edge →

Schools presentation on fiscal policy

Here the slides from a presentation I gave last week to A-level students of economics at a schools conference in Portsmouth. They include primers on the UK fiscal framework and the bond markets, the importance of confidence and credibility, and a comparison of the fallouts from the fiscal events in September 2022 and October 2024. … Continue reading Schools presentation on fiscal policy →

Is Rachel Reeves about to break another tax pledge?

The Financial Times is reporting today (15 February) that Rachel Reeves is ready to break another promise by extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds (one of the UK's least stealthy 'stealth taxes') beyond 2028 in next month's 'not a Budget' Budget. Here are four quick points. First, this report is plausible. The current freeze … Continue reading Is Rachel Reeves about to break another tax pledge? →