Tag: GDP

Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again)

I’ve just updated my UK GDP forecasts with today’s data for November. Here are ten key points, including some international comparisons. 1. UK economic growth in 2021 is likely to be just shy of 7½%, 1% higher than assumed in the October Budget and 3% higher than the consensus in the Treasury survey at the … Continue reading Consensus is too pessimistic on the UK economy (again) →

It’s still far too soon to unwrap ‘Plan B’

If the latest rumours are correct, the UK government will soon announce new Covid restrictions in response to the spread of the Omicron variant. Throughout the pandemic my instinct has been to give the policy-makers and their advisors the benefit of the doubt. But any such move now would make little sense. Starting with the … Continue reading It’s still far too soon to unwrap ‘Plan B’ →

A quick primer on ‘Omicronomics’

Here are some first thoughts on 'Omicronomics', or the economic impact of the new Covid restrictions announced for England over the weekend. The main short-term risk to the UK economy comes from the tightening of the self-isolation rules: contacts of those testing positive for the Omicron variant will have to stay at home for up … Continue reading A quick primer on ‘Omicronomics’ →