The tick up in UK CPI inflation to 4.0% in December last year was an unwelcome surprise, but one small miss in one month’s data does not change the big picture. For a start, inflation is still lower than the Bank of England had been forecasting. The November Monetary Policy Report assumed that inflation would … Continue reading Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end
Tag: Brexit
Are Brexit supporters thick? (#QTWTAIN)
An academic study published this week found that people with ‘lower cognitive ability’ were more likely to vote Leave in the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership. This was, of course, seized upon by many Remainers as more evidence that Brexit was a ghastly mistake. But does this stack up, or it is just another … Continue reading Are Brexit supporters thick? (#QTWTAIN)
The IMF is right to be more worried about ‘Bidenomics’ than Brexit
This week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its latest World Economic Outlook, October 2023: Navigating Global Divergences (imf.org). The headlines have focused on the IMF’s gloomy forecasts for the UK, which are even more nonsensical than usual. Unfortunately, this has drawn attention away from a far bigger concern – the fiscal madness in … Continue reading The IMF is right to be more worried about ‘Bidenomics’ than Brexit
Dodgy data and even flakier forecasts are making policy much harder
The unusually large revision to the gross domestic product (GDP) figures produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is only the latest of a series of issues with UK economic data and forecasts. Recent news on the public finances has also been better than predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility, while inflation has … Continue reading Dodgy data and even flakier forecasts are making policy much harder
Plain-speaking Economics 