One of the biggest threats to the economic recovery is a second wave of job losses as the government’s job retention scheme (JRS) is wound down. The Resolution Foundation has some good analysis here. Nonetheless, the headline figure of 9.3 million for the number of jobs that have been supported by the JRS may overstate … Continue reading Are 9.3 million people really still on furlough?
Almost all the commentary ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting at the end of the month has focused on whether interest rates should be cut, or left on hold. In contrast, I would be itching to vote for a hike. There does at least appear to be an emerging consensus that the … Continue reading The Bank of England should be thinking of raising rates, not cutting them
The proliferation of daft conspiracy theories has been one of the more depressing features of the painful process of leaving the EU. You might expect this nonsense from notoriously sloppy journalists, ‘fake news’ websites, or desperate politicians. But even some otherwise fairly sensible people have claimed that government policy is being driven by a cabal … Continue reading Debunking the myths of Brexit ‘disaster capitalism’
To begin with, let’s be clear that the UK’s second quarter GDP data were disappointing. The 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) fall was the first decline since 2012, and also bigger than expected (the consensus forecast was for no change). What’s more, the UK was, at the time, the only major economy to report an outright fall in … Continue reading Why Q2’s fall in UK GDP isn’t a game changer