It is always good to begin with some ‘good news’. The UK government recorded an unexpectedly large budget surplus in January, with revenues exceeding spending by £5.4 billion. This was £5.0 billion better than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It would be daft to focus on just one month’s figures, but this … Continue reading Latest misses show the danger of relying too much on OBR forecasts
Category: Taxation
Did the Truss/Kwarteng mini-Budget really cost the country £ [insert gigantic number here] billion?
Speculation that Liz Truss is about to make to return to frontline politics has prompted a flurry of dodgy claims and daft statistics about the economic cost of last September’s mini-Budget. Here's a quick debunking of the most common. I’ll start with the biggest number: £74 billion (sometimes cited as £73 billion). This appears to … Continue reading Did the Truss/Kwarteng mini-Budget really cost the country £ [insert gigantic number here] billion?
Are we becoming too dependent on the state?
I have to tip my hat to Civitas. The ‘Tufton Street’ think tank made quite a splash on Monday, including bagging the front page of the Daily Mail, with two striking claims. One was that over half of UK households now receive more in benefits from the government than they pay in tax. The other … Continue reading Are we becoming too dependent on the state?
Prospects for UK manufacturing are brighter than Make UK suggests
The quarterly ‘Manufacturing Outlook’ survey from Make UK (formerly the Engineering Employers’ Federation) is one of the better examples of its kind. It has clearly been written up by some serious economists, which I obviously think is a ‘good thing’. Nonetheless, the headlines appear to paint an overly gloomy picture of the prospects for the … Continue reading Prospects for UK manufacturing are brighter than Make UK suggests
Plain-speaking Economics 