On Monday the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). That may sound impressive and was certainly better than most had expected a few months earlier. But unfortunately, it was as good as it gets. … Continue reading The UK economy’s strong start to the year was a flash in the pan (reprise)
Category: Politics
Lies, damn lies, and Spending Review soundbites
On Wednesday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present her ‘Spending Review 2025’. This will set day-to-day budgets for all government departments for the three years from 2026-27 to 2028-29, and investment spending plans for a further year, to 2029-30. As usual, many of the details have already been revealed. In particular, ministers have trumpeted a ‘transformative … Continue reading Lies, damn lies, and Spending Review soundbites
Does the UK’s weak growth in GDP per head really “lay bare the full costs of Brexit”?
Many people have asked me about this chart, which appeared in David Smith’s regular (and usually excellent) column in the Sunday Times this weekend. The chart shows that GDP per head has grown much faster since 2016 in the euro area than it has in the UK – ‘nearly three times as fast’, according to … Continue reading Does the UK’s weak growth in GDP per head really “lay bare the full costs of Brexit”?
What is the real cost of the Chagos deal?
Many people are understandably still confused about the huge differences between the official figure of 'just' £3.4 billion for the cost of the Chagos deal, as cited by the Prime Minister, and other estimates which are as high as £30.3 billion. Here's my best attempt to clarify. The top figure of £30.3 billion (which I … Continue reading What is the real cost of the Chagos deal?
Plain-speaking Economics 