Category: Monetary policy

10 things to look for in the Spring Statement

Here is a short post on some key points to watch for tomorrow when the Chancellor presents her ‘Spring Statement’ to the UK parliament (at about 12.30). More questions than answers, I’m afraid, but I will follow up once we know more! 1. The immediate outlook for growth. The OBR is widely expected to halve … Continue reading 10 things to look for in the Spring Statement →

Bank of England on hold until May

The Bank of England's latest decision on interest rates is announced on Thursday. Here's my take. (TL;DR - I predict a 'dovish hold', albeit with a couple of nagging worries.) The markets are almost certainly right to expect 'no change' this week, with the Bank’s key rate left at 4½%. After cutting by ¼% in … Continue reading Bank of England on hold until May →

Schools presentation on fiscal policy

Here the slides from a presentation I gave last week to A-level students of economics at a schools conference in Portsmouth. They include primers on the UK fiscal framework and the bond markets, the importance of confidence and credibility, and a comparison of the fallouts from the fiscal events in September 2022 and October 2024. … Continue reading Schools presentation on fiscal policy →