By popular demand, here is a bitesize Q&A on tariffs. In short, there are no winners from a trade war, but it is not too late to avoid a global recession. For now, ‘wait and see’ may be the best strategy both for central bankers and investors. 1. Do the new ‘reciprocal tariffs’ make any … Continue reading Thirteen questions and twelve answers on Trump’s tariff war
Category: global economy
Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ make no economic sense
The Trump administration’s decision to impose additional tariffs on imports into the US is bad economics, motivated at least in part by bad politics. TTo recap, the new “reciprocal tariffs” will be set according to the 2024 figures for US trade in goods - completely ignoring trade in services. They are based on a formula … Continue reading Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ make no economic sense
10 things to look for in the Spring Statement
Here is a short post on some key points to watch for tomorrow when the Chancellor presents her ‘Spring Statement’ to the UK parliament (at about 12.30). More questions than answers, I’m afraid, but I will follow up once we know more! 1. The immediate outlook for growth. The OBR is widely expected to halve … Continue reading 10 things to look for in the Spring Statement
UK economy on a knife edge
The latest official data are perhaps not as bad as some headlines suggest, but they do confirm that the UK economy made a poor start to 2025. First, the raw numbers. Monthly GDP fell by 0.1% in January, against the consensus forecast of a 0.1% rise, led by a 0.9% fall in the production sector … Continue reading UK economy on a knife edge
Plain-speaking Economics 