How deep a hole are we in? The Institute of Economic Affairs has just published a primer I’ve written on the state of the public finances, which digs into this question. On the bright side, I argue that there is no need for any form of austerity, including tax rises, to fill a gap left … Continue reading Why we don’t need tax rises to pay for Covid
Category: Fiscal Policy
Why fiscal responsibility still matters
I’m relatively relaxed about the fiscal costs of Covid: UK government borrowing will drop sharply as the economy recovers; the increase in the debt burden is manageable; and there’s no need to ‘pay for Covid’ with ‘austerity’ of any kind. (See my earlier blog explaining How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Debt.) … Continue reading Why fiscal responsibility still matters
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Debt
I’ve read some utter tosh on the state of the UK public finances in the last few days. Here is an attempt to correct some of the biggest misunderstandings. Most importantly, government debt does not have to be ‘repaid’, only serviced. As long as the government can meet the interest payments (I’ll come back to … Continue reading How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Debt
Our economic emergency is almost over
(This piece was written on 27th November. Since then the new survey evidence has suggested that the hit to GDP from the November lockdown was smaller than expected, which is obviously consistent with the relatively upbeat message here.) For what it’s worth, I’ve been comparing my UK economic forecasts with those of the OBR. There … Continue reading Our economic emergency is almost over
Plain-speaking Economics 