The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook has received more attention than usual, thanks to some eye-catching work on the long-term trend in interest rates. This has prompted headlines ranging from “Ultra-low interest rates will return in Britain, IMF says” in the Telegraph, to “New IMF prediction is good news for homeowners” in the Mirror. So … Continue reading What the IMF is really saying about interest rates
Category: Fiscal Policy
The OECD’s minimum tax plan is dangerous showboating
On Wednesday, Liz Truss will use the Margaret Thatcher memorial lecture in Washington to call the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) a “global cartel of complacency” whose high tax policies are holding back growth. I fear she is right. In particular, Ms Truss will warn against the OECD’s plan for a minimum 15 … Continue reading The OECD’s minimum tax plan is dangerous showboating
Latest misses show the danger of relying too much on OBR forecasts
It is always good to begin with some ‘good news’. The UK government recorded an unexpectedly large budget surplus in January, with revenues exceeding spending by £5.4 billion. This was £5.0 billion better than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It would be daft to focus on just one month’s figures, but this … Continue reading Latest misses show the danger of relying too much on OBR forecasts
Did the Truss/Kwarteng mini-Budget really cost the country £ [insert gigantic number here] billion?
Speculation that Liz Truss is about to make to return to frontline politics has prompted a flurry of dodgy claims and daft statistics about the economic cost of last September’s mini-Budget. Here's a quick debunking of the most common. I’ll start with the biggest number: £74 billion (sometimes cited as £73 billion). This appears to … Continue reading Did the Truss/Kwarteng mini-Budget really cost the country £ [insert gigantic number here] billion?
Plain-speaking Economics 