The tick up in UK CPI inflation to 4.0% in December last year was an unwelcome surprise, but one small miss in one month’s data does not change the big picture. For a start, inflation is still lower than the Bank of England had been forecasting. The November Monetary Policy Report assumed that inflation would … Continue reading Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end
Category: Everyday Economics
Rate cuts are coming, but the markets may have to force the Bank’s hand
The Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates on hold this week was no surprise. However, there is still little sign that policymakers are thinking of cutting rates any time soon, despite stagnant growth and falling inflation. Indeed, three of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted again for another quarter … Continue reading Rate cuts are coming, but the markets may have to force the Bank’s hand
Letter to the FT on proposals for a ‘wage inflation tax’
The wage inflation tax proposed by Sushil Wadhwani (‘Time for the UK to tax inflation’ 5 September) would be inappropriate, impractical, and ineffective. It would be inappropriate because it would prevent markets from working properly. The wages paid by each company to each employee, like the prices of any other good or service, should be … Continue reading Letter to the FT on proposals for a ‘wage inflation tax’
Rishi Sunak should hit his economic targets, but probably won’t get any credit
In January the Prime Minister outlined his five priorities for 2023. As well as promises to cut NHS waiting lists and pass new laws to stop small boats, there were three pledges on the economy. These three at least should be deliverable. The first pledge was to “halve inflation this year to ease the cost … Continue reading Rishi Sunak should hit his economic targets, but probably won’t get any credit
Plain-speaking Economics 