It is so much simpler to interpret the UK economy if you attribute every single problem to Brexit. But it is also wrong. Last week, for example, the EU statistics agency Eurostat released preliminary data suggesting that consumer price inflation in the euro area fell from 8.5pc in February to ‘just’ 6.9pc in March, including a … Continue reading No, our inflation problem is not due to Brexit
Category: Applied economics
End of free money brings the chickens home to roost
The shocks that occasionally batter the UK economy seem to be coming thicker and faster. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) blew up in 2008. The Brexit vote followed eight year later. But we then only had to wait four years for Covid, and just two more for the cost-of-living crisis. At this rate we are … Continue reading End of free money brings the chickens home to roost
Could a house price crash still trigger a recession?
Fingers crossed, it looks like the UK has dodged the severe recession that many had feared. But we are not out of the woods yet. Could a sharp fall in house prices still drag the economy down? Many better economists than me have been tripped up by their forecasts for the UK housing market. For … Continue reading Could a house price crash still trigger a recession?
Latest misses show the danger of relying too much on OBR forecasts
It is always good to begin with some ‘good news’. The UK government recorded an unexpectedly large budget surplus in January, with revenues exceeding spending by £5.4 billion. This was £5.0 billion better than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It would be daft to focus on just one month’s figures, but this … Continue reading Latest misses show the danger of relying too much on OBR forecasts
Plain-speaking Economics 