Author: julianhjessop

Labour’s plans for pensioners don’t go far enough

The Labour Government’s determination to restrict eligibility for Winter Fuel Payments is the sort of decision that the fictional Sir Humphrey Appleby would describe as ‘courageous’. The House of Commons’ motion calling on the Government to delay the implementation of this change has no real chance of passing. But why on earth are Keir Starmer … Continue reading Labour’s plans for pensioners don’t go far enough →

A presentation on Brexit

Here are the slides (with a few tweaks and additions) from a presentation I made recently to an audience of economists in London. The presentation covers some strengths and weaknesses of the OBR's Brexit analysis and of 'doppelganger' models, and attempts to correct some common misunderstandings. It also includes some of my favourite charts! Brexit … Continue reading A presentation on Brexit →

Labour’s fiscal credibility is at risk if the Chancellor keeps shifting the goalposts

Rachel Reeves is said to be considering a technical change to the measure of debt used in the fiscal rules in order to allow more government borrowing. This move may not be as outrageous as some suggest, but it would not be costless either. And there is certainly no silver bullet to fix the public … Continue reading Labour’s fiscal credibility is at risk if the Chancellor keeps shifting the goalposts →

Labour’s policies risk snuffing out the recovery

Let us start with the good news. The UK economy is set to beat expectations this year and outperform the euro area, boosting the appeal of UK assets to overseas investors. UK GDP grew by a solid 0.7 percent in the first quarter, and this rate is likely to be matched in the second. Even … Continue reading Labour’s policies risk snuffing out the recovery →