The early omens for 2026 are not good. The UK is stumbling into the New Year on the brink of recession. Indeed, the economy stopped growing last summer as Budget jitters began to undermine confidence and spending again. Only some favourable rounding in August prevented headline GDP from falling in every month from July to … Continue reading The UK economy is trapped in a “doom loop” by a clueless government
Tag: tax
How might the Chancellor fill a £30 billion hole?
My previous blog post showed that, based on some reasonable assumptions, the Chancellor could have to find another £30 billion from tax increases. It is hard to see how this can be done without touching the big revenue raisers – namely income tax, National Insurance (again), and VAT. Indeed, earlier this month the Chancellor reportedly asked the … Continue reading How might the Chancellor fill a £30 billion hole?
This is no way to run a Budget!
The joint team from No.10 and the Treasury working to prepare the Budget has apparently decided to junk the plan to raise the basic and higher rates of income tax. The official line is that this is not a “U-turn” because this plan was just media speculation and never official policy. Pull the other one. The speculation … Continue reading This is no way to run a Budget!
Is Rachel Reeves about to break another tax pledge?
The Financial Times is reporting today (15 February) that Rachel Reeves is ready to break another promise by extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds (one of the UK's least stealthy 'stealth taxes') beyond 2028 in next month's 'not a Budget' Budget. Here are four quick points. First, this report is plausible. The current freeze … Continue reading Is Rachel Reeves about to break another tax pledge?
Plain-speaking Economics 