The unusually large revision to the gross domestic product (GDP) figures produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is only the latest of a series of issues with UK economic data and forecasts. Recent news on the public finances has also been better than predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility, while inflation has … Continue reading Dodgy data and even flakier forecasts are making policy much harder
Tag: government borrowing
Three big calls that Liz Truss got right
The all too brief premiership of Liz Truss began a year ago this week. The first anniversary is another good chance to reflect not just on what went wrong, but also on what she got right. (As a supporter of ‘Trussonomics’, I feel responsible as well.) There were two big mistakes. One was to underestimate … Continue reading Three big calls that Liz Truss got right
How valuable is ‘public sector net worth’?
Public finance geeks have been even more excited than usual about the latest statistical bulletin from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which includes new data on a balance sheet aggregate known as ‘public sector net worth’. What is this, and why does it matter? Public sector net worth, or PSNW, is a relatively comprehensive … Continue reading How valuable is ‘public sector net worth’?
Latest misses show the danger of relying too much on OBR forecasts
It is always good to begin with some ‘good news’. The UK government recorded an unexpectedly large budget surplus in January, with revenues exceeding spending by £5.4 billion. This was £5.0 billion better than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It would be daft to focus on just one month’s figures, but this … Continue reading Latest misses show the danger of relying too much on OBR forecasts
