Here is a short post on some key points to watch for tomorrow when the Chancellor presents her ‘Spring Statement’ to the UK parliament (at about 12.30). More questions than answers, I’m afraid, but I will follow up once we know more! 1. The immediate outlook for growth. The OBR is widely expected to halve … Continue reading 10 things to look for in the Spring Statement
Tag: economics
Bank of England on hold until May
The Bank of England's latest decision on interest rates is announced on Thursday. Here's my take. (TL;DR - I predict a 'dovish hold', albeit with a couple of nagging worries.) The markets are almost certainly right to expect 'no change' this week, with the Bank’s key rate left at 4½%. After cutting by ¼% in … Continue reading Bank of England on hold until May
UK economy on a knife edge
The latest official data are perhaps not as bad as some headlines suggest, but they do confirm that the UK economy made a poor start to 2025. First, the raw numbers. Monthly GDP fell by 0.1% in January, against the consensus forecast of a 0.1% rise, led by a 0.9% fall in the production sector … Continue reading UK economy on a knife edge
What to make of today’s UK jobs data
Tuesday’s official data on the state of the UK labour market have been interpreted in several conflicting ways, so here is an attempt to cut through the fog. I took two main points from the figures themselves. First, activity in the labour market continues to cool. I would not pay much attention to the headline … Continue reading What to make of today’s UK jobs data
Plain-speaking Economics 