John Mills’ new book, The Elephant in the Room (published by Civitas and the John Mills Institute for Prosperity), leads with a dire warning that UK living standards may be lower in 2030 than in 2019, but counters this with the bold claim that the economy could grow sustainably by 3% to 4% a year instead, if … Continue reading Book review: “The Elephant in the Room” by John Mills
Category: UK economy
Lockdowns fail the cost-benefit test
The Spectator has published a SAGE paper outlining a ‘reasonable worst case’ scenario leading to an additional 85,000 Covid deaths in the UK, even with some partial mitigation. It’s hard to know what to make of this figure without a better understanding of what would happen if the government did nothing. (The paper assumed that … Continue reading Lockdowns fail the cost-benefit test
How far will UK unemployment rise?
The planned closure of the original job retention scheme (CJRS) at the end of October has focused attention again on the prospects for unemployment. A ‘top down’ approach (based on GDP) suggests that UK unemployment could rise to more than 3 million, or 10% of the workforce. But a less pessimistic ‘bottom up’ approach suggests … Continue reading How far will UK unemployment rise?
Some facts on poverty in the UK
FYI, here are some hard data on UK poverty, with links to the original sources (unfiltered by pro/anti-Tory newspapers, think tanks, or UN rapporteurs...). First, trends in inequality and child poverty in the UK (before the pandemic, obviously, but also before the surge in government spending on job subsidies and welfare payments). (Source) Second, a … Continue reading Some facts on poverty in the UK
Plain-speaking Economics 