First, the good news (and the news is mainly good today). The unexpectedly large 0.6% bounce in GDP in the first quarter of the year means that the UK economy has officially exited ‘recession’, after declines of 0.1% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4 2023. This has already led to some more positive headlines, which … Continue reading UK economy ‘turns the corner’
Category: Monetary policy
Bank of England tees up rate cuts – at last
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left its key interest rate on hold at 5¼% this week, as expected, but there are some clear signals that cuts are coming soon. For a start, Dave Ramsden (Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking) joined Swati Dhingra in voting for an immediate reduction to 5%. This … Continue reading Bank of England tees up rate cuts – at last
Bank of England edges towards a summer rate cut
The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 5.25% this week was unsurprising, but there were some welcome hints that cuts are coming soon. The market reaction was consistent with the slight dovish tilt: 2-5 year government bond yields fell about 5 basis points (these correlate closely with the cost of … Continue reading Bank of England edges towards a summer rate cut
A ‘glass half full’ take on the Budget
There has been the usual blizzard of commentary on last Wednesday’s Budget – most of it negative – which continued over the weekend. For chapter and miserable verse, try the IFS or the Resolution Foundation. This piece will reflect instead on three positives and offer a quick verdict on some of the individual announcements. The … Continue reading A ‘glass half full’ take on the Budget
Plain-speaking Economics 