The first official estimates suggest that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year, which was better than most had expected. GDP per head increased by a respectable 0.5%. On the bright side, this should trigger a wave of upward revisions to growth forecasts for 2025 as a whole. (I … Continue reading UK Q1 GDP: as good as it gets?
Category: Labour markets
UK-India trade deal is a win-win, despite fears over NI exemptions
The last 24 hours have been frustrating and, frankly, a little weird. ‘Frustrating’ because the benefits of the new UK-India trade deal – a clear Brexit win – are still being overshadowed by the row over social security contributions. ‘Weird’ because I have found myself siding with a Labour government against many people who I … Continue reading UK-India trade deal is a win-win, despite fears over NI exemptions
The Government should hold the line on public sector pay
The independent pay review bodies are reportedly set to recommend pay increases of around 3pc for NHS staff and 4pc for teachers. However, the Government has only budgeted for a 2.8pc increase for public sector workers. This is broadly in line with expected price rises over the coming year, but still higher than the Bank … Continue reading The Government should hold the line on public sector pay
Is the UK economy really bouncing back?
The news that the UK economy grew by 0.5% in February, lifting the three-month growth rate to 0.6%, is obviously welcome. But these ONS figures should come plastered with health warnings. For a start, monthly GDP data are notoriously volatile, and often revised. A sharp correction is possible in March and especially in April, when … Continue reading Is the UK economy really bouncing back?
Plain-speaking Economics 