Some personal reflections on today’s news (as usual, all views here are my own only). First, the economics. The fall in UK inflation from 3.2% to 2.3% in April was slightly smaller than expected, but still another big step in the right direction. Admittedly, the ‘core’ rate excluding food and energy, at 3.9%, was still … Continue reading Thoughts on inflation, interest rates – and a surprise July election
Category: financial markets
A ‘glass half full’ take on the Budget
There has been the usual blizzard of commentary on last Wednesday’s Budget – most of it negative – which continued over the weekend. For chapter and miserable verse, try the IFS or the Resolution Foundation. This piece will reflect instead on three positives and offer a quick verdict on some of the individual announcements. The … Continue reading A ‘glass half full’ take on the Budget
Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end
The tick up in UK CPI inflation to 4.0% in December last year was an unwelcome surprise, but one small miss in one month’s data does not change the big picture. For a start, inflation is still lower than the Bank of England had been forecasting. The November Monetary Policy Report assumed that inflation would … Continue reading Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end
Red Sea crisis is unlikely to blow inflation off course
The disruption to shipping through the Red Sea – and the possibility of a further escalation of the Middle East crisis – are serious threats to the global economy. Nonetheless, the wider fallout should be limited. UK inflation might sink a little more slowly than it would otherwise have done, but it should continue to … Continue reading Red Sea crisis is unlikely to blow inflation off course
Plain-speaking Economics 